A new prediction market platform is set to go
live on the ethereum network this week.
Called Gnosis, the project will allow users to wager on future events
by asking and answering questions about the outcome of sports games or
elections. However, the platform's creators envision Gnosis one day
serving as a platform for a wide range of user-created prediction markets.
An example touted by
the team is a sample platform called Hunchgame,
which would see Gnosis being used as a basis for a prediction market centered
on celebrity gossip.
One of the more
experimental use cases for public blockchains, decentralized prediction markets
combine new technology with an old concept, one that in the past has seen
centralized versionsshuttered by governments or
unable to hit critical mass due to regulatory restrictions.
The idea is that by using a decentralized
network and uncensorable money, the experimental efforts can continue without
outside interference. Prediction market advocates also see the platforms as an
opportunity to surface information that otherwise might not be made public for
use by academics and decision-makers.
With the launch,
Gnosis will join Augur as the latest effort to create a decentralized
prediction market. As Augur has already launched in beta and held a
crowdsale, some observers view the two companies as rivals.
But, there are aspirational and technical
differences between the two platforms. For example, questions are resolved by
oracles on Gnosis and Augur in different ways.
While Augur uses many oracles to determine the
outcome of an event, Gnosis uses a mechanism whereby only one or a few oracles
provide the outcome, a feature they say will lead to faster validation.
If any one oracle disagrees with the
conclusion, the decision falls to a pool of oracles to decide as a "last
resort".
Gnosis founder Martin
Köppelmann further says that Gnosis boasts features Augur doesn’t have, such as
a long-term plan for incorporating futarchy,
an experimental form of government that uses prediction markets.
Launch details
Gnosis was working on ethereum for a few
months earlier this year, but the team behind it eventually pulled it down to
an internal test network to experiment with a new system.
This time, they are launching with a revised
version, one where content isn’t so tightly controlled by administrators.
If the "market" is built around the
question, “Will Hillary Clinton win the 2016 presidential election?", for
example, oracles settle on the final answer and provide validation
of the outcome.
Gnosis decentralized autonomous strategist
Matt Liston told CoinDesk:
